With new state rules on truck emissions recently approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, concerns persist about the feasibility of programs designed to spur motorists and businesses to buy electric vehicles, not the least of which are concerns over grid reliability.
What needs to happen before imposing the mandates is building the infrastructure necessary to power them, said Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in business and economics at the Pacific Research Institute (PRI), in an email response to the Southern California Record.
“The CARB [California Air Resources Board] mandate on electric trucks is troubling,” Winegarden said. “Heavy duty electric trucks cost two or three times as much as diesel trucks, have less driving range, and cannot perform all of the services that diesel trucks can. Making matters worse, the infrastructure to support these vehicles (such as sufficient charging stations) is not in place. Electric trucks are still inferior products relative to diesel trucks, and mandating their use will harm Californians.”
The CARB rule followed an executive order issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020, requiring that all operations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles must be 100% zero emission by 2045.
But lack of infrastructure remains a major obstacle, and the new technology presents safety issues, Winegarden said.
“It’s part of a pattern where energy policies have created arbitrary goals with no assurance that the goals can be met, with the heavy-duty truck mandate no different,” Winegarden said. “Should the gamble on heavy duty trucks not work out, a likely outcome, then these policies are going to crash hard against reality to the detriment of residents of the state.”
Last week the EPA also issued new rules for electric vehicle ownership.
“Biden's new executive order on EVs is a similar policy to the EPA mandates based on the same premise that the government knows best when it comes to consumers' best vehicle choice,” Winegarden said. “The cumulative impact on consumers is troubling. Taken together, these mandates will push prices up even further, making the affordability problems too many families are facing significantly worse. It will also add additional stress to the electricity grid, which will make it even less reliable and expensive. Rising electricity prices will also add additional stress to families' affordability problems.”
The California electric grid already is struggling to meet current energy demand given the state's generation and use mandates, Winegarden said.
“Forcing another use mandate (the heavy-duty electric truck mandate) will further destabilize the grid and will jeopardize electricity reliability for the state.”
He noted the CARB mandate arbitrarily forces up the costs of transportation services.
“These higher costs will undoubtedly be passed along to consumers. The result will be even higher prices for goods in the state," Winegarden said.
The solution to global climate change should involve innovation over mandates, Winegarden said.
“Sticking with the issue of heavy-duty trucks, addressing the problem of global climate change requires an economically viable lower or zero emission truck. Perhaps that is based on today's electric vehicle design, perhaps it is something else,” Winegarden said. “The best way to make these trucks a reality is to incentivize potentially millions of innovators to develop these technologies. Improving the environment for innovation is the best way the federal, state, and local governments can help address the problem of climate change.”
Another consideration is the fossil fuels that power electric grids.
“The CARB mandate will impose large costs for an uncertain environmental impact once the lifetime global emissions of electric heavy-duty trucks are considered,” Winegarden said. “And this has not even included the environmental degradation from the rare earth mines necessary to power the vehicles. This policy is pure symbolism and is not an effective response to the problem of global climate change.”