While the state of California faces an initiative to dismantle fracking as directed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, an economics professor sees it as nothing more than a political move.
“It’s something the Democrats will try because it sounds good,” said Robert Michaels, a professor of economics at California State University-Fullerton.
The Department of Conservation’s Geologic Energy Management (CalGEM) Division was instructed by Gov. Newsom last week to stop issuing new permits for hydraulic fracturing by January 2024, according to a press release.
“It’s being billed as a solution to some problems but if those problems are real, they are not going to be solved by changing the amount of gas that's produced and used in California alone, the entire U.S., or the entire planet,” Michaels told the Southern California Record.
Eliminating permitting will produce less gas statewide by fracking because only 15% of the production of oil and gas comes from fracking in California, according to Michaels.
“If what the California government is worried about is correct that too much gas being produced is causing greenhouse effects, the minor action of prohibiting the use of hydraulic fracturing and drilling will get nothing done and that’s why I say this initiative is designed to get political support without anybody having any idea exactly what the effects are going to be,” he said.
Gov. Newsom has also asked the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to evaluate ways to end oil extraction statewide by 2045.
But Michaels thinks Gov. Newsom’s plans are too vague.
“If they're going to be simply cutting production in California, that doesn't say anything about how much production is going to be actually withdrawn and cut once you take into account all the adjustments that are needed to do this,” he said. “Remember, the typical gas that’s delivered to your home or business is delivered by a state-regulated utility.”
Gov. Newsom has further charged CARB to evaluate how to phase out oil extraction by 2045 through a Climate Change scoping plan, which will include focusing on opportunities for job creation and economic growth while achieving carbon neutrality.
“The implied idea is that carbon is something that nobody really needs and therefore all you have to do is change a few economic institutions and everything will be okay because we'll be more carbon-neutral than otherwise but it doesn't make very much sense in terms of our actual abilities to control carbon usage and more precisely in terms of our ability to control carbon usage on a national or global scale,” Michaels said in an interview. “It's not something that Californians can do anything about.”
This isn’t the first time that Gov. Newsom has called for an end to fracking. Last year, he signed an executive order mandating that all new passenger vehicles sold be zero-emission by 2035.
“Gas becomes more economical as time passes and because of that, what you're seeing are decreases in expenditures on gas and all the rest but that doesn't mean there's going to be much in the way of changes in the hydrocarbon fuel production in the U.S.,” Michaels added.