While Craigslist Founder Craig Newmark funded a new election survey that weighs how mailing in ballots impacts voter turnout in California, a Berkeley University dean is concerned that the new method could be weaponized politically during the presidential election even without altering votes.
Newmark's Craigslist fortune, Forbes reported, is an estimated $1.3 billion.
“One of the concerns I have about voting-by-mail is perception because it does take time to process vote-by-mail ballots and President Trump has planted seeds to say that any votes that aren't tabulated as of election night are fraud,” said Philip B. Stark, associate dean with the division of mathematical and physical sciences at the University of California Berkeley.
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released "How Greater Vote-by-Mail Influences California Voter Turnout" last week, which is based on behavior since the 2016 state law, Voter’s Choice Act (VCA), was passed and adopted by 15 counties, according to a press release.
“If jurisdictions do a careful and responsible job of processing vote-by-mail ballots, they are not going to be able to announce results on election night,” Stark told Southern California Record. “It's going to take them a regular canvas period, which ranges from a week to a month, to ensure they've got it right and to deal with signature mismatches.”
The How Greater Vote-by-Mail Influences California Voter Turnout study found that the vote-by-mail option, ushered in by the 2016 VCA, did not lead to a higher turnout among foreign-language registrants, renters, new voters, younger voters, Latinos and Asian Americans.
“It matters to some political candidates and parties because they may be trying to target voters in a certain demographic group or feel that's where they have support and so if turnout is affected in some particular demographic group, that might impact how that candidate or party performs in the contests but obviously from the perspective of counting votes, it doesn't matter,” said Stark in an interview.
He added it’s unclear from where the demographics, provided by Political Data Inc, originate.
“The data must have been imputed from somewhere," Stark said. "The U.S. Census Bureau will tell you how many people there are of voting age and by race but that's different from who turned out. So, Political Data Inc. seems to be the source for their information.”
The study also disclosed that 48% chose vote-by-mail in Orange County compared to 34% in Sacramento and that fewer voters dropped off their ballot in person between both counties.
“There has been a steady move towards increased vote-by-mail for some time in California and the Voters Choice Act may have accelerated that some but all California jurisdictions are relatively used to processing a lot of vote-by-mail ballots,” said Stark. “It's not a big change for us.”
Further, more voted in person in Orange County than in Sacramento County, according to the study.
“There are people who distrust the postal service for a variety of reasons and among other things, ‘why have a third party involved in the custody of my ballot if I can drop it off in person and cut out the middle man?’” he said. “The relative convenience and perceived trustworthiness of different ways to cast a vote are going to vary.”